Sébastien FRIES

Welcome to my personal website!

About me

I am a tenure-track Assistant Professor at the Department of Econometrics and Data Science of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics, and a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Fellow. I hold a M.Sc.Eng. from ENSAE Paris (2015), a M.Sc. Analysis and Policy in Economics from Paris School of Economics (2015) and I completed a PhD in Mathematics at Paris-Saclay University in December 2018 focusing on the forecasting of so-called anticipative, or noncausal, heavy-tailed processes.

Research

Working papers

• Conditional moments of noncausal alpha-stable processes and the prediction of bubble crash odds.

2018. arXiv:1805.05397. Conditionally Accepted at Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

• Path prediction of aggregated alpha-stable moving averages using semi-norm representations.

2019. arXiv:1809.03631.

• Understanding the explosive trend in EU ETS prices -- fundamentals or speculation?

2020, with Friedrich, M., Pahle, M. & O. Edenhofer. arXiv preprint arXiv:1906.10572.

Publications

• Mixed causal-noncausal AR processes and the modelling of explosive bubbles.

2019. S. Fries, J.-M. Zakoïan. Econometric Theory, 35.

• National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area.

2018. S. Fries, J.-S. Mésonnier, S. Mouabbi, J.-P. Renne. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33.

Patents

• Methods and systems for flagging events in a time series and evaluating a downhole operation.

2020. S. Fries, Hou, T., Ennaifer, A., Jiang, L., Kherroubi, J. and Dumont H. US Patent Application No. 16/879,947.

Teaching

2019 - Machine Learning - BSc, full coordinator

2019 - Case Study in Data Science : A data-centered competition on the theme of The Election Game - MSc, full coordinator

2019 - 2020 Data Science Project : Introduction to text mining and classification - BSc, designer and teacher of the course

2019 - 2020 High-dimensional statistics - MSc, tutorials